On Prediction Markets

• Caveat emptor. From Matt Levine’s excellent Money Stuff, on Polymarket bots:

Anyway Bloomberg’s Carolyn Silverman, Nathaniel Popper and Marie Patino report:

Over 100,000 accounts lost at least $1,000 on Polymarket, one of the largest prediction markets, according to a Bloomberg News analysis of every wallet active since the beginning of 2025. That is almost twice the number that made at least that much.

Among the winners, a majority of the profits were raked in by a tiny slice of what look to be automated bots, based on the Polymarket trade records compiled by the data firm Dune. Everyone else, in aggregate, lost $131 million. …

While prediction markets have been described as peer-to-peer, the Polymarket records suggest the role of the sportsbook is now largely being played by the sort of automated, high-frequency traders that have long dominated other financial markets. The most active accounts on the site were a small proportion of wallets, but accounted for most of the trading volume.

2026-04-28T17:44:25-05:00April 28th, 2026|HomeRecommended|

Worst…President…Ever

• Thomas Edsall has it right in his NYT guest essay: titled “Easily the Worst President in U.S. History”:
The damage President Trump has inflicted on the United States and the world is so enormous and wide-ranging that it is hard to grasp.” Worth the read.

2026-04-21T19:35:18-05:00April 21st, 2026|HomeRecommended|

More Worthwhile Reading

• More worthwhile reading:

First, from the NY Times Editorial Board, Trump Is Hiding the Truth About the War in Iran:

“There is a reasonable debate to have about the wisdom of this war. Iran’s murderous government does indeed present a threat — to its own people, to its region and to global stability. Mr. Trump could make a fact-based argument for confronting the regime now, especially to prevent it from menacing its neighbors and, above all, from developing a nuclear weapon. We are skeptical, but we acknowledge that there is a case to be made.

Mr. Trump is not making it. Instead, he has lied about the reasons for the war and about its progress, in an apparent attempt to disguise his poor planning and the war’s questionable basis.”

And also from the Times, a most excellent essay from Phil Klay: Trump Has Made a Fundamental Miscalculation about Iran. It’s definitely worth reading.

2026-03-22T17:00:07-05:00March 22nd, 2026|HomeRecommended|

Bouie Again Accurate on Trump

• I highly recommend Jamelle Bouie’s latest NYT opinion piece – Is There Method to Trump’s Madness? Excerpt:

“So, again, there is no method to this particular madness. There is no method at all. What there is, instead, is a man with a fourth-rate intellect and a fifth-rate temperament who treats reality as a television show for which he is the cloistered, pampered star. But the world actually exists. Real lives are at stake. And his actions have weight that cannot be easily moved.”

2026-03-14T18:37:36-05:00March 14th, 2026|HomeRecommended|

Yes, Still More for Jamelle B.

• Jamelle Bouie again sums things up very accurately in his Feb. 25 NYT What Trump Hath Wrought essay. An excerpt:

“What Trump has, a little more than one year into his second term, is a failed presidency: one that has crashed on the rocks of his ambition to supplant constitutional government with that of his will. Yes, he has done a tremendous amount of damage. And yes, he has degraded American democracy to the point that it is on life support.”

2026-02-27T17:31:20-05:00February 27th, 2026|HomeRecommended|

Jamelle Bouie Again

• Another Jamelle Bouie essay I enjoyed from the NYT – This Is Not How a Normal President Speaks.  I especially agree with his notion that John Roberts shares some blame for his role in Trump v. United States, which not only stopped ongoing prosecutions that might have derailed DJT’s election, but has fully empowered  his dictatorial presidency. Excerpts:

“Trump is, in his mind, an elected monarch — although not an enlightened one — whose whims are law and whose power extends to every inch of the United States and every corner of the Western Hemisphere…Trump’s assertion of unlimited authority — subject only to his moral judgment and his mind (whatever that means) — is a total rejection of popular sovereignty and the logic of the Constitution…

In Trump v. United States, Roberts and his Republican colleagues anointed the office of the presidency with immunity from criminal prosecution for “official acts,” defined — somewhat vaguely — as anything extending from the president’s “core constitutional powers.” Never mind that this language had no basis in the constitutional text or its drafting and ratification. Never mind that the framers, in fact, seemed to accept the possibility that a president might be criminally prosecuted for actions in office after impeachment and removal…

If the only things Trump thinks can stop him are his own morality and his own mind, our task — at least for those of us who view the state of things with outrage and anger — is to show him the folly of his words.”

2026-01-15T17:04:01-05:00January 15th, 2026|HomeRecommended|

More on Tr***

• What a tangled web that family weaves – read more about the vast enrichment schemes organized by the Trump crime family here in the NYT.

After that, read about Jack Smith’s testimony in the Times, indicting Tr***.  No surprise here:

““Our investigation developed proof beyond a reasonable doubt that President Trump engaged in a criminal scheme to overturn the results of the 2020 election and to prevent the lawful transfer of power,” Mr. Smith said, according to the transcript.”

2026-01-02T14:25:59-05:00January 2nd, 2026|HomeRecommended|
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