• Tomas Puyeo does an excellent job discussing the early data on Omicron here. This is, I believe, quite a good assessment given the limited data available to date. Tomas authored the excellent “The Hammer and the Dance” substack post of March 19, 2020 talking about what might happen due to Covid.

His Omicron post is definitely worth a read.

Missing (due to lack of data, I presume) is a discussion of how antivirals like Paxlovid will influence outcomes.  Alas, a full production ramp-up of Paxlovid is unlikely to come before the second half of 2022.  See Scott Gottlieb’s take while being interviewed by Andy Slavitt on his In the Bubble podcast.