Yes, masks and physical distancing probably did have some COVID benefits

The Royal Society in the UK looked at multiple studies of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) against COVID-19 and issued a report (and summarized here in the BMJ):

“The report is non-judgemental on the timing and manner in which NPIs were applied in different regions and countries around the world. It focuses on understanding the impact of NPIs on SARS-CoV-2 transmission and makes no assessment of the economic or other societal impacts of the different NPIs…

The weight of evidence from all studies suggests that wearing masks, particularly higher quality masks (respirators), supported by mask mandates, generally reduced the transmission of SARS-CoV-2 infection. Studies consistently, though not universally, reported that mask wearing and mask mandates were an effective approach to reduce infection…

Stay-at-home orders, physical distancing, and restrictions on gathering size were repeatedly found to be associated with significant reduction in SARS- CoV-2 transmission, with more stringent measures having greater effects…

There is room to debate the societal risk/benefit ratio of the application of these measures; that’s not the point of the paper. What it does suggest is that blanket statements that “these measures are ineffective” are not true, and they must be weighed carefully in the face of the expected future respiratory pandemics we’ll face.

2023-09-05T12:59:53-05:00August 31st, 2023|Home, Musings|

Much Ado About Nothing?

I particularly liked the concluding paragraph from Matt Yglesias’ Slow Boring substack post re. the new Ivy+ Admissions Paper:

“Fundamentally, though, you come back to the themes of my Strange Death ofEducation Reform series about improving public education. This proved to be a substantively difficult and politically unrewarding task. But it’s actually very important! The victims of the inequities identified in this paper — kids with good grades, 1500+ SAT scores, generally from families in the 70th-80th percentile of the income distribution — do perfectly well in the United States of America. The much larger problem is poor kids for whom K-12 school quality makes a huge difference but who often don’t have access to the best teachers or the best curriculum. This doesn’t key into the personal identity issues of New York Times subscribers in the same way that arguing about Ivy League admissions does, but it’s much more important.”

 

2023-08-01T15:40:31-05:00August 1st, 2023|Home, Musings|

Randall Monroe and XKCD serendipitously meet up with JAMA…

Randall Monroe and XKCD serendipitously meet up with JAMA…

Wallace J, Goldsmith-Pinkham P, Schwartz JL. Excess Death Rates for Republican and Democratic Registered Voters in Florida and Ohio During the COVID-19 Pandemic. JAMA Intern Med. Published online July 24, 2023. doi:10.1001/jamainternmed.2023.1154

“Findings  In this cohort study evaluating 538 159 deaths in individuals aged 25 years and older in Florida and Ohio between March 2020 and December 2021, excess mortality was significantly higher for Republican voters than Democratic voters after COVID-19 vaccines were available to all adults, but not before. These differences were concentrated in counties with lower vaccination rates, and primarily noted in voters residing in Ohio.”

2023-07-25T15:54:44-05:00July 25th, 2023|Home, Musings|

Humans shift the word’s axis

Apparently, (see this science article in the NYT by Raymond Zhong) polar ice cap melting from increased global temperatures is not the only way we affect the wobble in the earth’s rotation axis; there are also effects due to our pumping of ground water!  I was completely unaware of the vast volume that must be being pumped in order to have a demonstrable  planetary influence.

2023-06-30T14:01:08-05:00June 30th, 2023|Home, Musings|

Jamelle Bouie Agrees

I guess Jamelle Bouie agrees – from his NY Times Republicans Have Made Their Choice piece:

“Most things in life, and especially a basic respect for democracy and the rule of law, have to be cultivated. What is striking about the Republican Party is the extent to which it has, for decades now, cultivated the opposite — a highly instrumental view of our political system, in which rules and laws are legitimate only insofar as they allow for the acquisition and concentration of power in Republican hands.”

And don’t miss his June 24 column, Republicans Serve Up Red Meat for a Reason; it’s devastatingly accurate.

2023-06-25T15:05:47-05:00June 18th, 2023|Home, Musings|

What makes some Republicans so bad…

Setting aside the all-too-commonly voiced support for the candidate who is so obviously unfit for office, what I find most disgraceful among many republican political office holders is the divisiveness they continue to stoke with their pro forma statements of support for the orange one, statements that most of them know are untrue.  What they keep spouting with their “deep state,”weaponized,” “politicized,” (and worse) rhetoric is bad for a country already suffering from excessive division.  But apparently their concern is not for the country – it’s for staying in power, despite the obvious cost.

Another obvious example of politicking without regard to consequence – their push to cut funding for the IRS, which could result in an INCREASE in the deficit, since it will likely cut tax revenue by over $200 billion.

2023-06-15T13:15:22-05:00June 13th, 2023|Home, Musings|

AlphaZero Improves Sorting/Hashing

Maybe this is the first example of, well, AI offsetting some of the emissions costs of generative AI.  From venturebeat.com:

“Google’s artificial intelligence (AI) research lab DeepMind has achieved a remarkable feat in computer science through its latest AI system, AlphaDev. This specialized version of AlphaZero has made a significant breakthrough by uncovering faster sorting and hashing algorithms, which are essential processes utilized trillions of times daily by developers worldwide for data sorting, storage and retrieval…In a paper published in the science journal Nature, DeepMind asserts that AlphaDev’s newly discovered algorithm achieves a 70% increase in efficiency for sorting short sequences of elements and approximately 1.7% for sequences surpassing 250,000 elements, as compared to the algorithms in the C++ library. Consequently, when a user submits a search query, AlphaDev’s algorithm facilitates faster sorting of results, leading to significant time and energy savings when employed on a large scale.”

Wait, I can’t forget DeepMind’s leap in solving protein structures

2023-06-08T19:56:06-05:00June 8th, 2023|Home, Musings|
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